Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
